Optimism is high on Wall Street at the midpoint of the year.
Investors are the most bullish they have been since November 2021, according to the global fund manager survey, or FMS, released Tuesday from Bank of America Securities. Not only are portfolio managers not anticipating a recession, but they are also betting big on equities — especially the “Magnificent Seven.” Cash levels are at a three-year low.
All appears to be well on the markets front. Halfway through 2024, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are each at records, on Monday closing once again at all-time highs. The broad market index is now a stone’s throw away from 5,500, a milestone that would have flabbergasted many strategists at the start of the year.
“June FMS sentiment is at the most bullish level since Nov′21,” wrote Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett. “Our broadest measure of FMS sentiment, based on cash levels, equity allocation, and economic growth expectations inched higher to 6.03 from 5.99 last month.”
Still, that optimism has some investors concerned a reversal is on the way. In November 2021 — the last time Wall Street was this bullish — the S&P 500 capped off a strong year, advancing more than 26%. However, the following year, in 2022, the broader index slumped more than 19%, driven by the Federal Reserve starting to raise interest rates, which sparked a correction in large-cap tech stocks.
In fact, investors are concerned about the potential for greater volatility in the second half of 2024. The fund manager survey shows inflation fears have eased in investors’ minds, though it remains the top concern, while concerns over geopolitical risks and the U.S. presidential election have grown.
Inflation is the No. 1 risk on investors’ minds, according to 32% of investors, down from 41% in May, followed by geopolitics (22%, up from 18%) and the U.S. presidential election (16%, up from 9%).
For the moment, however, the market view appears sanguine, according to the survey. Roughly two-thirds, or 64%, of money managers are in the soft landing camp, where the economy slows but doesn’t tip into a recession, firmly matching the consensus view. Expectations of a hard landing are at new lows, down to just 5%, the survey read.
Meanwhile, 80% of investors anticipate at least two, or more, interest rate cuts over the coming year, with the first one coming in September.
Within stocks, investors continue to remain deeply invested in the Magnificent Seven, which is the most crowded it has been since October 2020, according to the survey.
